Campaign ‘06 Hits Upper Peninsula
Michigan Politics By

George Weeks

If you seek evidence that Campaign ’06 is underway, look about the Upper Peninsula this week. The Big Four candidates for governor and the U.S. Senate – the two incumbents and GOP frontrunners for the nominations to oppose them– will be there.

Governor Jennifer Granholm and Senator Debbie Stabenow, as they normally do at this time of the year, will attend the U.P. State Fair in Escanaba on Friday. Between them, they'll also visit eight other cities above the bridge during the week.

What's particularly interesting is the early and extensive attention that Dick DeVos, wealthy west Michigan businessman running for governor, and the Rev. Keith Butler, ex-Detroit councilman seeking to challenge Stabenow, are giving to the northern front.

DeVos will attend the fair and spend six days in the U.P. Butler will make his hit at the fair on his third trip to the U.P. as a candidate.

GOP leaders view DeVos and Butler as presumptive nominees, and other formidable prospects for each nomination have opted out.

Last week, polling by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA of 436 likely Republican primary voters (margin of error: plus/minus 5 percentage points) had DeVos with 25-point leads over Sen. Nancy Cassis of Novi and Rep. Jack Hoogendyk of Kalamazoo. Butler had a four-point lead over the Rev. Jerry Zandstra, on leave from a Grand Rapids think tank. He'll visit the fair with his son, Jacob, 10.

In the latest sub sample poll match ups against their now relatively unknown challengers, Granholm among Yoopers had a 50-point lead over DeVos; Stabenow 43 points over Butler. (Sub sample margins of error are large.)

In the Traverse City media market, which includes the eastern U.P., DeVos has a 44-35 lead over Granholm. Stabenow leads Butler, 54-38. Stabenow and GOP gubernatorial candidate Cassis have scheduled numerous appearances in the northern Lower Peninsula this month.

In the statewide sampling of 600 likely voters (margin of error: plus/minus 4 percentage points) Granholm was 56-36 over DeVos; Stabenow 62-31 over Butler.

Sixty-nine percent of voters did not recognize Butler's name, nor did 36 percent recognize DeVos. Name ID, and presumably head-to-head numbers, will improve for eventual nominees.

At the outset, I focused on the U.P. because that's where most action will be this week in both races in early heat-up of Campaign ’06. Beyond that, these points are worthy of note in the EPIC/MRA poll:

• Granholm, at 54 percent, had a better job approval rating than the previous month, and continues to do much better among Michigan voters than President Bush. But 59 percent of respondents indicated the state is on the "wrong track" while 62 percent said the same for the nation.

• Granholm has 45-point leads over DeVos in Wayne and Oakland counties, and 8 points in the battleground of Macomb.

• Stabenow had a 56 percent positive job rating, also up from previous months. She had leads over Butler of 46 points in Wayne, 44 in Oakland, and 29 in Macomb.

• The poll had U.S. Rep. Candice Miller of Harrison Township, the former secretary of state, in a close 47-45 match with Granholm. But, alas for Republicans, she opted out of the race while the poll was in the field.

• Stabenow had a 56-36 lead over Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who is unlikely to run but hasn't ruled it out.

George Weeks is the political columnist for The Detroit News and is syndicated by Superior Features.