Polls Show Granholm’s Re-election Vulnerabilities
Michigan Politics By
George Weeks

“…he is not an ideologue, and has not only a keen mind but a mind open to argument.”

--Sen. Carl Levin, on his vote to confirm

U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John G. Roberts

Before relenting earlier this year, Democrat Carl Levin was the chief obstructionist in blocking Senate votes on President Bush's nominations of three Michigan judges, including Michigan Court of Appeals Judge Richard Griffin of Traverse City, who ultimately were confirmed for the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati.

They were pawns in a long and shameful game of political payback over Republicans blocking some of President Bill Clinton's nominees.

Michigan's junior Senator, first-term Democrat Debbie Stabenow, sided with Levin on the 6th Circuit nominees. But they were on opposite sides, with Levin in the majority, as the Senate voted 78-22 to confirm John G. Roberts as chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court.

Other than going to war or impeaching a president, a senator casts no more important vote than on lifetime appointments to the nation's highest court. Levin, in his fifth term and Michigan's longest-serving senator ever, has cast 10 such votes--including four to confirm justices nominated by Republican presidents.

Levin's deliberation on Robertson was especially thoughtful--and in contrast to Stabenow's approach.

Both senators expressed concern about some of Roberts' earlier writings and what Levin described as his "excessive reluctance at times to share his own views" during confirmation hearings. Roberts is hardly the first or last such reluctant nominee.

Levin was lavish about Robert's "extraordinary credentials…to say that he is highly capable is an understatement."

To his credit, Levin sought and got his own meeting with Roberts. At one point, "He looked me square in the eye" and gave one of the answers that "gave me further confidence that he has an open mind and is not driven simply by ideology."

Stabenow's view: "I believe his philosophy undermines our most cherished and fundamental rights, liberties, and freedoms as Americans."

Who to believe? I opt for Levin.

In April, when 6th Circuit seats were at issue, former Detroit Councilman Keith Butler, frontrunner for the 2006 GOP nomination to oppose Stabenow, told me he would make her "obstructionist" stand on judicial nominations an issue.

Now, with her Roberts vote, Republicans are on the attack. Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman calls her "Staben-NO." The National Republican Senatorial Committee labels her "Supreme Partisan." The Michigan GOP went overboard in questioning, "Which liberal interest group's checkbook controlled (her) voting finger?"

A year from now, I doubt that Stabenow's vote, wrong as it was, will be a significant campaign issue. Incumbent senators seldom are burned by such votes.

To me, the significant thing about last week's vote was the reasoned approach by Michigan's senior senator in evaluating Roberts, 50, who "could easily be chief justice for the next 25-30 years or more."

Bush made a good choice and Levin cast a good vote.

Northern Polling

September statewide polls indicate that one of Gov. Jennifer Granholm's reelection vulnerabilities is in the 24-county Traverse City media market in the northern Lower Peninsula and the eastern Upper Peninsula.

That's not particularly surprising, since Republican Dick Posthumus carried those counties, as calculated by EPIC/MRA pollsters, by a 54-46 margin against her in 2002. She carried the state, 51-47.

EPIC/MRA pollster Ed Sarpolus, whose September poll has Granholm in a 43-43 tie with Republican businessman Dick DeVos in the market, said his survey indicates that she is losing support among independents in the area.

Her job approval of 42 percent is the lowest in any of the five major media markets he polled.

Polling in the Traverse City/Cadillac/Sault Ste. Marie media market by Marketing Resource Group for Inside Michigan Politics newsletter gave her a 48-38 approval/disapproval rating and a 43-33 lead over DeVos. Her 43 percent was the lowest she received in any of the six markets surveyed.

In both polls, Granholm had high approval ratings and substantial leads when the entire Upper Peninsula was included. Mitchell Research & Communications, in a sub-poll tabbed "Northern Lower Peninsula/UP,” had Granholm with a 43.8-39.7 lead over DeVos--compared to her statewide edge of 45-36.

Pollster Steve Mitchell said: "The fact that Governor Granholm is well below 50 percent in a trial ballot question against an opponent with low name identification and only has a single digit lead is bad news for her."

All three polls were released at the recent Republican Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island; surveyed 600 likely voters statewide; and had a margin of error plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margins of error were much larger for the more narrow northern sub samples.

George Weeks is the political columnist for The Detroit News and is syndicated by Superior Features.